Renewable electricity in the Netherlands

Abstract

The Dutch policy goal is to achieve a share of 17% renewable electricity in the domestic demand in 2020, corresponding to 18–24 TWh. It is uncertain whether and under which conditions this aim can be achieved. This paper aims to explore the feasible deployment of renewable electricity production in the Netherlands until 2020 by evaluating different images representing policies and societal preferences. Simultaneously, the most promising technologies for different settings are investigated and identified. First Dutch policy goals, governmental policy measures and definitions of renewable electricity are discussed. Second, a comparison is made of four existing studies that analyze the possible developments of renewable electricity production in the coming decades. Finally, three images are set up with emphasis on the different key factors that influence the maximum realizable potential. Results indicate onshore wind, offshore wind and large-scale biomass plants as most promising, robust options in terms of economical performance, ecological sustainability and high technical implementation rate. In the image with high implementation rates, an annual production of 42 TWh may be achieved in 2020, while under stringent economical or ecological criteria, about 25 TWh may be reached. When only the robust options are considered, 9–22 TWh can be realized. The analysis illustrates the importance of taking the different key factors mentioned influencing implementation into account. Doing so allows for identification of robust and less robust technological options under different conditions.