Renewable and low carbon hydrogen for California – Modeling the long term evolution of fuel infrastructure using a quasi-spatial TIMES model

Abstract

This paper describes the development and use of a hydrogen infrastructure optimization model using the TIMES modeling framework, H2TIMES, to analyze hydrogen development in California to 2050. H2TIMES is a quasi-spatial model that develops the infrastructure to supply hydrogen fuel in order to meet demand in eight separate California regions in a least cost manner subject to various resource, technology and policy constraints. A Base case, with a suite of hydrogen policies now in effect or proposed in California (renewable hydrogen mandate, fuel carbon intensity constraint and prohibition on using coal without carbon capture and sequestration) leads to hydrogen fuel with significant reductions in carbon intensity (85% below gasoline on an efficiency-adjusted basis, 75% below on a raw energy basis) and competitive hydrogen costs (∼$4.00/kg in 2025–2050). A number of sensitivity scenarios investigate the cost and emissions implications of altering policy constraints, technology and resource availability, and modeling decisions. The availability of biomass for hydrogen production and carbon capture and sequestration are two critical factors for achieving low-cost and low-emission hydrogen.