Renée J. Mitchell (2021). Twenty-One Mental Models That Can Change Policing: A Framework for Using Data and Research for Overcoming Cognitive Bias

Abstract

‘Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing’ takes a refreshing and powerful approach to the ‘evidence-based policing’ subject. It is aimed at practitioners—those involved in policing and delivering policing services. The author’s novel approach is to introduce the reader to some basic concepts of how humans think, act, and make decisions, before diving into the core of her message—how to use data more intelligently (and therefore to make greater impact). I found this way of framing the latter conversations very helpful, as it gives context and justification for many of the improvement methods covered. Of course, the mental models introduced have wider relevance to policing (and life) beyond use of data and have value in and of themselves. The author highlights 2021 as a particularly important year to focus on reducing bias in police decision-making. The book is divided into eight sections, developmentally building knowledge from simple to more complex: from fundamental to more advanced. The first section introduced three ‘mental models’, or ways of thinking—the first of which is the difference between instinctive and more measured ways of thinking—Kahneman’s’ Systems 1 and 2. Given the importance of rapid decision-making on incomplete information for operational officers, and consequently their familiarity and comfort in taking this approach, recognizing, and understanding the pros and cons of each approach is hugely important for officers. The second ‘model’ introduced is cognitive bias (the author uses a wide definition of ‘mental model’). In the space of nine pages, a solid overview of the key relevant biases is given, giving clarity on how they can seriously affect decision-making. I would have liked more space devoted to this, but the subject is of course wide and detailed enough to fill a book of its own. The third and final model introduced in Part I is first principles thinking—leaning this time on Shane Parrish (of the popular ‘Farnham Street’ website and blog)—highlighting the benefits of a more thorough, reflective, and questioning thinking process. First principles thinking, like the ‘five whys’, is a form of critical thinking, and like the previous two models, highly relevant to decision-makers in safety-critical professions and industries. The three models the author has selected to cover are well-chosen, giving a solid foundation to move on to the next section: ‘How We Think About Math’.