Abstract
This study sought to determine the risk of ischemic stroke (IS)/thromboembolism (TE) associated with renal impairment and its incremental predictive value over established risk stratification scores (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, previous stroke [CHADS2] and congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, previous stroke, vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, sex category (female) [CHA₂DS₂-VASc]) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Risk stratification schemes for prediction of IS/TE in patients with AF are validated but do not include renal impairment. Patients diagnosed with nonvalvular AF and available estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) data in a 4-hospital institution between 2000 and 2010 were identified. The study population was stratified by renal impairment defined by serum creatinine level and by eGFR measured at time of diagnosis of AF. Independent risk factors of IS/TE (including renal impairment) were investigated in Cox regression models. The incremental predictive value of renal impairment over CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc were assessed with the c-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement. We focused on the 1-year outcomes in our analyses. Of 8,962 eligible individuals, 5,912 (66%) had nonvalvular AF and available eGFR data. Renal impairment by both creatinine and eGFR definitions was associated with higher rates of IS/TE at 1 year, compared with normal renal function. After adjustment for CHADS₂ risk factors, renal impairment did not significantly increase the risk of IS/TE at 1 year (hazard ratio: 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75 to 1.49 for renal impairment; and hazard ratio: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.41 for eGFR). When renal impairment was added to existing risk scoring systems for stroke/TE (CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc), it did not independently add to the predictive value of the scores, whether defined by serum creatinine level or eGFR. This was evident even when the analysis was confined to only those patients with at least 1 year of follow-up. Renal impairment was not an independent predictor of IS/TE in patients with AF and did not significantly improve the predictive ability of the CHADS₂ or CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores.
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