Remotely sensed lake area changes in permafrost regions of the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau between 1987 and 2017

Abstract

Both gradual and abrupt changes in lake surface area in permafrost regions are crucial for understanding the water cycles in cold regions under climate change. However, seasonal changes in lake area in permafrost regions are not available, and their occurrence conditions are still unclear. Based on remotely sensed water body products at a 30 m resolution, this study provides a detailed comparison of lake area changes across seven basins characterized by clear gradients in climatic, topographic and permafrost conditions in the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau between 1987 and 2017. The results show that the maximum surface area of all lakes net increased by 13.45 %. Among them, the seasonal lake area net increased by 28.66 %, but there was also a 2.48 % loss. The permanent lake area net increased by 6.39 %, and the area loss was approximately 3.22 %. The total permanent lake area generally decreased in the Arctic but increased in the Tibetan Plateau. At lake region scale (0.1° grid), the changes in permanent area of contained lakes were divided into four types including no change, homogeneous changes (only expansion or only shrinkage), heterogeneous changes (expansion neighboring shrinkage) and abrupt changes (newforming or vanishing). The lake regions with heterogeneous changes accounted for over one-quarter of all lake regions. All types of changes in lake regions, especially the heterogeneous changes and abrupt changes (e.g., vanishing), occurred more extensively and intensely on low and flat terrain, in high-density lake regions and in warm permafrost regions. These findings indicate that, considering the increase in surface water balance in these river basins, surface water balance alone cannot fully explain changes in permanent lake area in the permafrost region, and the thawing or disappearance of permafrost plays a tipping point effect on the lake changes.