Abstract
Abstract. Urban expansion and land use and land cover change (LUCC) studies are a key knowledge of efficient local governance and urban planning and a lot contributing to the future sustainable development of the city. The main goal of the paper is to model a future urban spatial expansion by 2029 and 2039 of Darkhan city using Landsat TM satellite imagery (land use and cover change map of 1999, 2009, and 2019) and multivariate logistic regression model. Clark Lab’s (Clark University) IDRISI & TerrSet software applied for the urban expansion prediction and the correlation between expansion and driving factors. On account of multivariate logistics regression modelling, eight physical factors influencing urban expansion identified to predict urban expansion based on USGS Landsat TM imageries (Landsat Multispectral Scanner with 60 m resolution). The regression statistic accounted for the probability of future urban expansion was positive. Overall, the LUCC has estimated the transition of natural cover to the impervious surface in Darkhan city. Our result estimates an increase in the built-up area and slum area during the period 1999–2009 and 2009–2019, represents LUCC was characterized by an external transformation from natural to urban area. According to the future urban growth prediction, the urban area would be significantly spread into the open space and natural vegetation area. The main findings stated here are that Darkhan city is expanding in an unsystematic way, even though the urban growth has not been analysed in detail and has a bad case of urban unregulated sprawl.
Highlights
1.1 Study phenomenon and areaUrbanization is a relatively new phenomenon for modern Mongolia
This process began in the middle of the 20th century when just over 20% of the population lived in urban areas, and urbanization has intensified since the 1950s
The Darkhan city is chosen as a case area and this study was accomplished for the purpose to estimate the future spatial change of the urban extent
Summary
Urbanization is a relatively new phenomenon for modern Mongolia. This process began in the middle of the 20th century when just over 20% of the population lived in urban areas, and urbanization has intensified since the 1950s. In the early 1960s, for modern industrial development, the Darkhan city initially with inhabitants of 40,000 about was established in the north of Mongolia (Figure 1) along the TransSiberian railroad, and over the last 60 years, the young city growing till to the second-largest urban area with an important role for the socio-economic development of Mongolia after capital city Ulaanbaatar. The aftermath of domestic population migration increased inhabitants to 96,076 in 2018, which was unexpected by government town planning to sustainably develop the city. The Darkhan city is chosen as a case area and this study was accomplished for the purpose to estimate the future spatial change of the urban extent
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