Abstract
The time series of 20th century Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation (SWP) shows variations over decadal timescales, including a wetting trend since the 1970s. Here, it is shown that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) can be implicated as a remote driver of the decadal-scale variations in SWP. Observational analysis identifies a significant in-phase relationship between the AMV and SWP, and the SWP decadal variability can be largely explained by the AMV. The physical mechanism for this relationship is investigated using both observations and numerical simulations. The results suggest that North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) warming associated with the positive AMV phase can excite an eastward propagating wave train response across the entire Eurasian continent, which includes an east–west dipole structure over Siberia. The dipole then leads to anomalous southerly winds bringing moisture northward to Siberia; the precipitation increases correspondingly. The mechanism is further supported by linear barotropic modeling and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis.
Highlights
The time series of 20th century Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation (SWP) shows variations over decadal timescales, including a wetting trend since the 1970s
The present study presents observational evidence and numerical simulations to demonstrate that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a dominant pattern of oceanic variability in the North Atlantic, could have a remote influence on the decadal variability of Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation (SWP)
Correlation analysis suggests a significant in-phase relationship between the AMV and SWP, and the SWP decadal variability can be largely explained by the AMV signal
Summary
The time series of 20th century Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation (SWP) shows variations over decadal timescales, including a wetting trend since the 1970s. Rivers in Siberia (east of the Ural Mountains) contribute most of the total freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean[5] For this reason, understanding the variability of Siberian precipitation is important for climate change research. Another study found an anti-phase relationship between Siberia and northeast Asia in terms of interannual variations in July precipitation[20] These studies have made good progress in understanding the interannual variability of Siberian warm season precipitation (SWP). To our knowledge, there has been no study linking the SWP to the AMV, and it is not known whether the AMV can influence Siberian precipitation over decadal timescales This is important for understanding decadal climate variability over Siberia, and has potential for decadal prediction in this region
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