Remembering the price of wool

Abstract

Seventy people active in the Canterbury wool industry (either as farmers or brokers) and 70 members of the Christchurch general public estimated the present, past (1, 2, 7, and 14 years ago), and future (5 years hence) prices of wool, butter, stamps and general costs. A general tendency to underestimate more recent and overestimate 14-year-old prices was found. The wool industry sample showed systematic bias in the way they remembered past wool prices. Although they had a more gloomy view of the past effects of inflation, they were more optimistic than the general public sample about future wool price prospects.