Abstract
In this paper, we use the improved direct method and improved residual method to re-measure the annual scale and to measure the quarterly scale of the short-term international capital flows based on the Chinese Balance of Payment table. At the same time, we use the residual method to estimate the monthly scale of the Chinese short-term international capital flows as well. Then we explain and test these calculated results. Next we apply the results to the lead–lag analysis of macro-economy. To judge whether the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator, we apply the Kullback–Leibler information method and cross-correlation analysis method to analyze the lead–lag relationship between the short-term international capital flows and macro-economy by selecting some representative macroeconomic indicators as a reference. Our empirical analysis shows that in China, the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator to macro-economy and a coincident indicator to Purchasing Managers’ Index. In the end, we give some conclusions and policy proposals.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
