Remarkably consistent thermal state of the south central Chile subduction zone from 36°S to 45°S

Abstract

AbstractDelineating rupture areas of subduction zone earthquakes is necessary for understanding the controls on seismic and aseismic slip. For the largest recorded earthquake, the 1960 Chile event with moment magnitude 9.5, the rupture area is only loosely defined due to limitations in the global seismic network at the time. The rupture extends ~900 km along strike. Coastal deformation is consistent with either a constant rupture width of ~180–200 km along the entire length or a narrower (~115 km) rupture in the southern half. A southward narrowing of the seismogenic zone has been hypothesized to result from warming of the subduction zone to the south, where the subducting plate is younger. We present results of thermal models at 36°S, 38°S, 43°S, and 45°S to examine potential along‐strike changes in thermal state. Models most consistent with observed surface heat flux include fluid circulation in the oceanic crust that advects heat to the ocean. This ventilated hydrothermal circulation preferentially cools transects with young subducting lithosphere; frictional heating preferentially warms transects with older subducting lithosphere. The combined effects of frictional heating and hydrothermal circulation increase décollement temperatures in the 36°S and 38°S transects by up to ~155°C and decrease temperatures in the 45°S transect by up to ~150°C. In our preferred models, décollement temperatures 200 km landward of the trench in all four transects are ~350–400°C. This is consistent with a constant ~200 km wide seismogenic zone for the 1960 Mw 9.5 rupture, with decreasing slip magnitude in the southern half of the rupture.