Remaining useful life prediction of aero-engines based on random-coefficient regression model considering random failure threshold

Abstract

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management (PHM) of aero-engines. This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold. Firstly, a random-coefficient regression (RCR) model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines. Then, the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived. The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework. The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines. After that, a expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines. In addition, the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold. Then, based on above results, an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold (RFT) is derived in a closed-form. Finally, a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.