Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Degradation Processes With Long-Range Dependence

Abstract

A prerequisite for the existing remaining useful life prediction methods based on stochastic processes is the assumption of independent increments. However, this is in sharp contrast to some practical systems including batteries and blast furnace walls, in which the degradation processes have the property of long-range dependence. Based on the fractional Brownian motion, we adopt a degradation process with long-range dependence to predict the remaining useful life of the above systems. Because the degradation process with long-range dependence is neither a Markovian process nor a semimartingale, the exact analytical first passage time is difficult to derive directly. To address this problem, a weak convergence theorem is first adopted to approximately transform a fractional Brownian motion-based degradation process into a Brownian motion-based one with a time-varying coefficient. Then, with a space-time transformation, the first passage time of the degradation process with long-range dependence can be obtained in a closed form. Unknown parameters in the degradation model can be identified using discrete dyadic wavelet transform and maximum likelihood estimation. Numerical simulations and a practical example of a blast furnace wall are given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.