Reliably Republican? Shifts in U.S. Veterans’ Political Party Affiliation from 1974 to 2016

Abstract

Assumptions of veteran affiliation with the Republican Party are widespread, but the extent to which veteran status constitutes a social cleavage patterning political alignment remains understudied. Using General Social Survey data from 1974 to 1994 and from 2010 to 2016, we assess (1) the consistency with which veterans identify as Republican and (2) whether veterans’ Republican affiliation are patterned on selection effects (particularly via demographic factors preceding their entry into military service) or socialization effects (via factors emerging from their entry into military service). Our findings suggest a greater historical likelihood of Democratic affiliation undercut by an emerging trend toward Republican identification. This trend appears largely driven by selection; neither veteran status alone nor length of service are significantly associated with political affiliation, but postconscription era veterans are more likely to identify as Republican than as Democratic.