Reliable region predictions for automated valuation models

Abstract

Accurate property valuation is important for property purchasers, investors and for mortgage-providers to assess credit risk in the mortgage market. Automated valuation models (AVM) are being developed to provide cheap, objective valuations that allow dynamic updating of property values over the term of a mortgage. A useful feature of automated valuations is to provide a region of plausible price estimates for each individual property, rather than just a single point estimate. This would allow buyers and sellers to understand uncertainty on pricing individual properties and mortgage providers to include conservatism in their credit risk assessment. In this study, Conformal Predictors (CP) are used to provide such region predictions, whilst strictly controlling for predictive accuracy. We show how an AVM can be constructed using a CP, based on an underlying k-nearest neighbours approach. Time trend in property prices is dealt with by assuming a systematic effect over time and adjusting prices in the training data accordingly. The AVM is tested on a large data set of London property prices. Region predictions are shown to be reliable and the efficiency, ie region width, of property price predictions is investigated. In particular, a regression model is constructed to model the uncertainty in price prediction linked to property characteristics.