Reliability Simulation Combining Kriging and Monte Carlo Radius-outside Importance Sampling in Space Structure Latch

Abstract

Concerning the issue of high dimensions and low failure probabilities including implicit and highly non-linear limit state function (LSF), the approach of reliability simulation combing Kriging and Monte Carlo Radius-Outside Importance Sampling (MCROIS) is presented, and the Kriging model is to approximate the unknown LSF, then calculate the initial sampling radius of the sphere, and the optimal radius is gained through the iterative algorithm. As such, the joint probability density function of importance sampling is constructed, which ensures that sampling domain is restricted to values outside the sphere located in the design point, and the efficiency is improved. The numerical example of space structure latch demonstrates the efficiency, accuracy and robustness compared with Crude Mote Carlo (CMC), which is validated that the method is of particular interest in applications with a low failure probability of failure, and it realizes the comprehensive design of reliability and wear lifetime on-orbit, and makes contributions to the exploration of reliability and lifetime analysis for the complex aerospace equipment