Abstract
Seismic performance and loss assessments are required in areas of Insurance, Finance and Public Policy. Providers are Structural Engineers and Risk Management Firms. There are no current procedures to evaluate the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties for such assessments. The essential issue is whether or not there is sufficient reliability in the result to use the result as the basis for risk management decisions and actions. For a single building this may be whether or not a prescribed earthquake performance level is met, life safety or if a portfolio’s vulnerability level is acceptable, whether the. loss for a given time period is less than a stated value. A method based in part on Federal Emergency Management Agency P-695, is developed for evaluating the reliability of performance and/or loss assessments for both individual and portfolios of buildings. Consideration is given to how well the building investigation and corresponding evaluation process have been performed, the qualifications of the person(s) doing the assessment, the thoroughness of the building evaluation, the technical validity of the assessment procedure or model and what computational reliabilities are presented. The method characterizes the uncertainty of each component of the assessment procedure for each building by qualitative determined assignments. The resulting reliability measure is likely to be most useful for determining whether/or not a building has acceptable life safety performance, or if a portfolio has an acceptably low loss risk over a given period of time. In both cases, the reliability must either be sufficient to warrant action, or serve to indicate need for improved assessment.
Highlights
IntroductionReal estate investors and financiers often limit their investments to properties that have limited down-side risk, which may include insurance
Introduction to Reliability of Building SeismicPerformance EvaluationsMany private owners and public institutions have taken steps to ensure that the seismic risks posed by their respective buildings are assessed and mitigated if necessary.Real estate investors and financiers often limit their investments to properties that have limited down-side risk, which may include insurance
Original design regulations applicable was regulated by 1976-97 UBC or equivalent building seismic design code, and the design was completed before the ASCE 41 threshold date
Summary
Real estate investors and financiers often limit their investments to properties that have limited down-side risk, which may include insurance Parts of these financial decision processes may depend on the assessed seismic risk posed by a building, and, the reliability of this assessment is of key concern. Is less than a given acceptable value These questions are applicable to both individual buildings, and portfolios of multiple buildings that are locally or geographically dispersed. There is inherent uncertainty in the reliability of the results of any professional evaluations, including seismic performance assessments. This general condition has been well-stated by Justice California Supreme Court Justice Roger J. Statistics for a set of Monte Carlo simulations of the aggregated loss, together with a method for evaluation of appropriate CV for the estimated values
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
