Reliability of predictive models for non-operative healing potential of stable juvenile osteochondritis dissecans knee lesions

Abstract

BackgroundWhile juvenile osteochondritis dissecans (JOCD) lesions have greater healing potential than equivalent lesions in adults, only 50% of JOCD lesions demonstrate radiographic healing after six months of non-operative treatment. Two previous studies have produced nomograms to predict a patient's probability of healing with non-operative treatment based on patient and lesion characteristics. The purpose of this study was to determine inter- and intra-observer reliability of the predictive nomograms. MethodsA consecutive series of 34 skeletally immature patients (40 knees), who underwent non-operative treatment for stable JOCD lesions was retrospectively reviewed. At two time points at least one week apart, two medical students, two orthopaedic surgeons, and a radiologist made measurements of the JOCD lesions. These measurements, along with patient ages and pain type, were used to generate a point value for each lesion based on both nomograms. Intra-class correlations (ICCs) were calculated to determine inter- and intra-rater reliability. ResultsWe found near perfect intra-rater correlation (ICC) for all raters' individual OCD measurements, as well as total point score for the two nomograms (ICC range, 0.780–0.929). Additionally, there was near perfect inter-rater reliability among raters for total scores and individual components of each nomogram (ICC range, 0.721–0.974). ConclusionsThere is high inter- and intra-rater reliability for both point systems for predicting healing of JOCD lesions. Clinicians should be aware of these as tools to help guide decision making in patients with JOCD lesions.