Abstract
This paper studies the availability of the electricity supply when the sources consist of a combination of solar energy and a small hydro installation. Instead of flow-of-river, a small reservoir is used. By not using the hydro energy during sunny periods, the natural flow-of-river fills up the reservoir for later use. A model for global solar radiation is proposed with an astronomical part (deterministic) and a meteorological part (stochastic). The meteorological part is based on a Markov model of the cloud coverage. The solar model does not require solar radiation measurements, just cloud observations. A case study has been performed for Timbuktu (16.75°N, 0.07°W) in which generation availability is simulated for four different cases: solar power only; solar power with storage; solar and hydro power and solar and hydro power with storage. To be able to use exclusively renewable energy sources, a combination of sources is needed to secure the reliability of the supply. Using solar cells in combination with a small reservoir is favorable. Even with a weak flow the affect of the flow on the day time reliability is minor, but great benefits can be found for reliability during low load hours (night time).
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