Reliability Investment and Life-Cycle Cost

Abstract

The reliability of avionic equipment profoundly influences life-cycle cost; the level of reliability attained largely depends upon the investment in reliability programs during development. As more investment is made in reliability improvement, some cost elements increase and others decrease. These opposing cost trends yield a unique minimum life-cycle cost (LCC). In order to find the level of investment in a reliability improvement program that minimizes LCC, the Reliability Investment Optimization (RIO) model has been developed. It identifies, for a particular avionic system, the level of reliability investment that minimizes the LCC of the equipment. This model employs a reliability-growth relationship based on the Duane model. The RIO model uses this reliability growth pattern to compute LCC as a function of MTBF (mean time between failures) where LCC comprises: 1) research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E), 2) procurement, and, 3) operations and support (O&S). The RIO model uses summary level data that are appropriate for the timeframe of its most advantageous use, i.e., prior to detail design of the system. The degree of accuracy for the input parameters need not be high because results are not very sensitive to data accuracy. The model's results thus are quite stable. The RIO model was designed with avionic systems in mind. However, the model applies to a wider range of systems. Certain assumptions should be particularly scrutinized in extending usage beyond avionics, e.g., Poisson demand assumption versus a wearout failure pattern (failure rate increases over time), scheduled maintenance, and LCC element breakdown.