Reliability Evaluation of Smart Substation Based on Time-Varying Probabilistic Hybrid Attack Graph

Abstract

A substation is the portion of a power grid that forms a link between the cyber system and the physical system. Reliability evaluation of smart substations based on a time-varying probabilistic hybrid attack graph (TVPHAG) is studied in this paper. First, the topology network of the smart substation is established, whose attributes are represented by probability. Then, in order to solve the problem of asynchrony in the cyber-physical system and the hybrid caused by heterogeneity, time-varying state equation in topology and cuts in algebra are introduced to TVPHAG. Based on TVPHAG, the evaluation of the reliability of cyber-physical systems with multiple equipment and multiple timescales is established. On this basis, the influences of physical conditions, cyberattacks, physical attacks, and cyber-physical attacks on substations are analyzed, respectively. Finally, the simulation shows that the method is effective in evaluating the reliability of smart substations, providing a new method for the evaluation of reliability.