Reliability estimation of public bus routes: Applicability of multivariate adaptive regression splines approach

Abstract

The performance of public bus lines is generally evaluated by comparing demand and ridership. However, reliability gain or loss by a proposed bus route should also be considered in the decision-making process to ensure a service that is preferable for users and operable for providers. In this study, it is aimed to provide a tool for predicting the reliability of a proposed bus route by considering route layout and traffic conditions. Travel time based reliability is predicted by using a novel nonparametric method, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Some critical thresholds of route layout parameters that should be considered for higher reliability are found. It is concluded that route lengths longer than 10 km, and number of intersections over 22 considerably decrease whole day based reliability. For peak hour based reliability, the types and numbers of intersections are found to be more efficient than the ones in whole day based model and a reliability regulator impact of roundabout numbers under nine is observed.