Abstract
The approach of this paper relies on a prospective study up to 2050 conducted by the TIMES model, combined with a quantitative assessment of the French power sector reliability. It is to take into account the short term power grid transient conditions in long-term prospective analysis. For this purpose, a reliability indicator related to the kinetic reserves has been defined and endogenized in the model in order to observe how the power system reliability may evolve in response to a high share of renewable energy source (RES) integration and stability constraint. It enables us to draw for reliability-constrained scenarios with high shares of RES, the possible shape of investments, additional back-up and flexible options needed to guarantee the grid’s stability anytime.
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