Abstract
An approach to estimate both the reliability index β and its complement, the probability of failure, through closed-form expressions that consider aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, is proposed. Alternatively, exceedance demand rates are obtained based on simplified expressions and numerical integration. Reliability indicators are calculated, considering the uncertainties in the compressive strength of concrete, steel yield, and section geometry, together with the aleatory uncertainties related to seismic loadings. Such indicators are estimated in a continuous RC bridge located in Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico. The bridge was designed to comply with a drift of 0.004. Exceedance demand rates for drift thresholds from 0.001 to 0.012 are estimated, and maximum differences of 5.5% are found between the closed-form expression and numerical integration. The exceedance demand rate expressed by means of its inverse, the return period, indicates that the serviceability limit state is exceeded after 58 years of the bridge construction. The reliability index decreases by about 1.66%, and the probability of failure increases by about 16.1% when the epistemic uncertainties are considered. The approach shows the importance of epistemic uncertainties in the estimation of reliability indicators.
Highlights
Many Mexican cities with a high population density, such as Mexico City and AcapulcoCity, are located in earthquake-prone regions, making them vulnerable to both infrastructure damage and devastation in terms of human lives and economic losses
Researchers have proposed different approaches as the basis for obtaining exceedance demand rates: [15] perform seismic demand analyses in bridges located in California; [16]
The probability of failure is proposed in a years for the case without; (c) the reliability index decreases 1.66% when epistemic uncerclosed-form expressionMoreover, format, which has the following advantages: (a) itare canlower be used for tainties are considered
Summary
Many Mexican cities with a high population density, such as Mexico City and Acapulco. Present an approach to estimate the structural reliability in a rock tunnel obtaining the failure probability from the first-order reliability method (FORM); [9] present a life-cycle management for bridges considering the risk attitude of decision-making; the effect of climate change on performance is considered. Researchers have proposed different approaches as the basis for obtaining exceedance demand rates (demand hazard curves): [15] perform seismic demand analyses in bridges located in California; [16]. The difference between the present study and the works mentioned is that reliability is expressed in terms of both probability of failure and reliability index, using simplified closed-form mathematical expressions considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Demand hazard curves are estimated based on two approaches: (a) using closed-form analytical expressions that consider aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, and (b) using numerical integration. Reliability indicators are estimated in a bridge structure located in Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico
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