Reliability Assessment of Multi-State Phased Mission Systems With Common Bus Performance Sharing Subjected to Epistemic Uncertainty

Abstract

In many real situations, because of the lack or inaccuracy of data, it is difficult to evaluate the performance levels and state probabilities of multistate components with precise values. Thus, the reliability evaluation of systems is always affected by the epistemic uncertainty. Existing research on epistemic uncertainty just focuses on simple multistate systems, without considering the phased mission and performance sharing characteristics of systems. Besides, the impact of transmission loss and performance storage on reliability needs to be considered in the modeling of performance sharing systems. In this article, considering the epistemic uncertainty, transmission loss, and performance storage simultaneously, an efficient reliability evaluation method for multi-state phased mission systems with common bus performance sharing is proposed. The transmission loss during the processes thatperformance sharing between subsystems and transferring between phases is considered in the system model. A modified Markov model combined with the mass function is adopted to measure the precise belief degree of component states at any given moment. Then, the belief universal generating function (UGF) method based on the Dempster—Shafer evidence theory is utilized to evaluate the uncertainty of the system instantaneous availability. Finally, two case studies are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and explore the dynamic system availability under epistemic uncertainty.