Reliability assessment of dynamic line rating methods based on conductor temperature estimation

Abstract

Dynamic line rating techniques are increasingly prevalent in the computation of ampacity for overhead transmission lines. Some of these methods, commonly employed by system operators, rely on real-time measurements to calculate conductor temperature, either directly or indirectly. Despite their widespread usage, the susceptibility of these techniques to measurement errors has been largely disregarded in prior research. In this regard, this paper includes a groundbreaking reliability analysis addressing the impact of measurement errors on various dynamic line rating techniques in overhead lines, based on conductor temperature estimation. Two case studies are presented, incorporating typical errors from simulations. The first case study adopts a standard 24-hour profile for the variables involved in the conductor ampacity calculation. In the second study, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted, in which meteorological variables are randomly assigned with five load levels to evaluate the current’s influence on measurement noise sensitivity. The resulting ampacity errors across all methods considered are remarkably high, with mean values exceeding 150% in specific scenarios. This unequivocally demonstrates that the commonly accepted levels of measurement accuracy in these widely used rating techniques yield estimations falling far below acceptable reliability standards.