Reliability assessment of bioreactor landfills using Monte Carlo simulation and coupled hydro-bio-mechanical model

Abstract

The performance of a bioreactor landfill is highly influenced by the simultaneous interactions of several coupled processes that occur within the landfill. In addition, the high uncertainty and spatial variability in the geotechnical properties of municipal solid waste (MSW) poses significant challenge in accurately predicting the performance of bioreactor landfills. In this study, a 2D coupled hydro-bio-mechanical (CHBM) model was employed to predict the behavior of MSW in bioreactor landfills. The numerical model integrated a two-phase flow hydraulic model, a plane-strain formulation of Mohr-Coulomb constitutive model, and a first order decay biodegradation model. The statistical ranges (mean and standard deviation) of some of the major influential MSW properties were derived from the published studies. Random fields of spatially variable MSW properties were generated following the log-normal distribution. Reliability-based analysis was carried out by performing several realizations of Monte-Carlo simulations and the statistical response of the output results including the moisture distribution, pore fluid pressures, landfill settlement, and interface shear response of the composite liner system were quantified. The results clearly indicate the importance of considering spatial variability of the geotechnical MSW properties and its influence on the performance of bioreactor landfills during leachate injection operations. A comparison of the results with the deterministic analysis was performed to evaluate the relative benefits and to emphasize the need for reliability-based analysis for effective design of bioreactor landfills.