Abstract
Risk and reliability aspects are incorporated into the multicriterion analysis of watershed management, which considers three conflicting objectives: I. to increase agricultural benefit by increasing effective precipitation, II. to decrease erosion and water pollution stemming from agricultural activities, III. to increase water yield in order to meet downstream water demand. To each of the objectives there corresponds one or more criteria such as, for objective II, sediment yield, dissolved phosphorus and other pollutants. Stochastic spatial parameters, such as soil properties and stochastic meteorological elements, influence the criterion or output functions. As a result, figures of merit (annual income, investment, P loading and yields of sediment and water) are also stochastic. The trade-off analysis considers risk of pollution versus reliability of water supplies and is performed by means of composite programming, an extension of compromise programming. The real-life example of an agricultural watershed illustrates the methodology.
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