Reliability and Resource Allocation and Recovery of Urban Transportation System Considering the Virus Transmission

Abstract

The urban transport system is an integral part of a city and is essential for the proper functioning of other urban functional systems. To improve the resilience of urban transport systems under the background of the spreading COVID-19 epidemic, this paper predicts the number of patients of various types at each stage of epidemic development based on an improved infectious disease model for Wuhan and verifies the validity of the model using statistical methods. Then, a system reliability model is developed from the perspective of controlling the spread of the virus and reducing economic losses, and the optimal time points for urban traffic closure and recovery are determined. Finally, a resource allocation optimization model was developed to determine the number and location of resource allocation points which based on 19 hospitals to avoid the further spread of the virus. The results give a valuable reference for enhancing the resilience of urban transport systems and improving their performance in all phases.