Reliability and lifetime estimation of bioregenerative life support system based on 370-day closed human experiment of lunar palace 1 and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

It is extremely important to accurately estimate reliability and lifetime of Bioregenerative Life Support System (BLSS) for its proper design, building and operation. However, this problem remains unsolved due to data deficiency of long-period prototype experiments. In this paper, the first ground-based experimental prototype of BLSS in China, Lunar Palace 1 (LP1), was selected as representative to estimate the reliability and lifetime of BLSS, because the number and time of each unit failure of LP1 was accurately recorded during the 370-day closed human experiment of LP1. Based on these time-series data, failure number probability distribution function of each unit and overall LP1 were formulated through parameter estimation and composite probability distribution function derived from units’ series and parallel connection. Then, the influence of each unit failure on overall BLSS reliability and lifetime was determined correspondingly through sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the numerous pseudo-random numbers obeying the overall failure probability distribution function of LP1 were generated to estimate the reliability and lifetime of BLSS through maximum likelihood estimation and Monte Carlo simulations. The results demonstrate that the failure possibility of five units, water treatment unit, mineral element supply unit, LED light source unit, atmosphere management unit and temperature and humidity control unit have greater impact on reliability and lifetime of BLSS, and the mean lifetime of BLSS was 19112.37 days (about 52.4 years) with 95% confidence interval of [17367.11, 20672.68] days (about [47.58, 56.64] years) under normal operation and maintenance of BLSS. This research can lay a theoretical foundation for design, building and operation of BLSS with high reliability and long lifetime in the future.