Reliability and criticality analysis of a large-scale solar photovoltaic system using fuzzy-fault tree analysis approach

Abstract

Over time, solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems experience a decline in performance and reliability due to various environmental factors. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) can be used to assess the reliability of these systems and identify faults and failure modes that can significantly impact the entire PV system’s performance. However, in practice, obtaining accurate failure probability values for the components of a solar PV system is challenging since systems operate in an ever-changing environment, resulting in a scarcity of data for statistical estimation. This paper proposes a fuzzy theory-based FTA approach to obtain the failure probabilities of the faults more accurately. The Fuzzy-FTA methodology converts experts’ subjective opinions expressed in linguistic terms into a Failure Possibility Score (FPS), which is then converted into a failure probability value. The results of the proposed approach are compared to those obtained through the conventional FTA to assess its effectiveness, applicability, feasibility, and efficiency. Soiling, dust accumulation, inadequate system maintenance, bad system configuration, bird dropping, delamination, improper installation, shading, grounding, and discoloration are the most critical faults and impact on the performance and reliability of solar PV systems.