Reliability Analysis of Wind Energy Generation System Using Stochastic Method

Abstract

Operators of renewable energy systems (RESs) must always manage uncertainty to some extent to ensure the reliability and the security of the electric power supply source. The guiding principle in this regard is to ensure service reliability and quality by balancing load variations with the variable renewable energy (VRE) sources. If the power generated by these VRE sources is not properly managed in conjunction with the varying load, the power grid may fail to achieve the required balance. To ensure its reliable operation, reliability analysis is vital for wind energy generation system (WEGS). This paper evaluated and assessed the reliability of WEGS and a proposed varying load by first using a stochastic approach to model the WEGS and the proposed varying load after which power generation indices were used to evaluate and assess the performance of the model. The WEGS and the varying load were modelled separately after which the two were combined into one model. Full availability, partial availability, the expected energy not supplied (EENS) or loss of energy expectation (LOEE), the mean or average instantaneous electric power generation and mean instantaneous generation deficiency were the indices used for the evaluation of the WEGS. The results indicated that the electric power generation will meet the power demand during most of the transition states of the WEGS with the expectation that the variation in the load will not be at fast pace and in large quantum.