Abstract
A reliability analysis of suspension bridges against flutter failure is presented using the basic theory of reliability. For the purpose of analysis, uncertainties considered are those arising from the variations in geometric and mechanical properties of bridge, modelling, damping and experimentally obtained flutter derivatives. These uncertainties are incorporated by multiplying the computed flutter wind speed with a number of independent factors, which are considered as random variables. Each factor is assumed to follow log-normal distribution. The wind environment at the site, which may cause flutter failure, is considered as the other uncertainty necessary for computing the reliability against flutter failure. The flutter wind speed for the bridge is determined using a finite element approach and a multimode analysis. The effect of some important parameters such as the mean wind speed at the site, coefficients of variation of the multiplying factors associated with damping, modelling and flutter derivatives on the reliability estimates is investigated. The results of the study show that the reliability against flutter failure is sensitive to the variation of the above parameters.
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