Reliability analysis of rock slopes considering the uncertainty of joint spatial distributions

Abstract

To reasonably and effectively evaluate the stability of jointed rock slopes, this study proposes a reliability analysis method that considers the uncertainty of the joint spatial distribution. First, the discrete fracture network (DFN) model is used to characterize the variability of joint geometric parameters, and a random variable of joint location is assumed to be a random integer that follows a uniform distribution in the random number library. Then, Latin hypercube sampling is used to sample uncertain random variables to generate random numbers, and construct the corresponding DFN model. Finally, the safety factor (Fs) of each numerical model under sampling is calculated by strength reduction method, and the failure probability of jointed rock slope is obtained by statistical analysis of Fs. The comparative analysis results demonstrate that considering the uncertainty of joint spatial distribution is crucial for accurately analyzing the reliability of rock slopes. This method comprehensively considers the main internal factors that affect the reliability of jointed rock slopes, including the uncertainty of rock strength parameters and variability of geometrical parameter and the location randomness of joints, making the results of the evaluation of the reliability of rock slopes more precise and reasonable.