Reliability analysis of phased-mission systems: a practical approach

Abstract

This paper presents a novel and simple approach to reliability analysis of phased-mission systems. The technique presented in this paper transforms a phased-mission system into several non-phased-mission systems, and thus allows each phase to be modeled separately. The mission succeeds as long as every phase successively executes its requirements, and failed component(s) of any phase is(are) repaired so that the system is in a successful state before as well as after it begins the next phase. Alternative mission success scenarios are also readily definable within this context. The benefit of this simplified approach is that it provides a practical implementation for the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems. The different phases of the system are computed independently, and the duration and the structure of the phases are left to the designer or manager. If the requirements of the mission change during execution of the mission (duration of a phase or the sequence of phases), the impact of the change in mission objectives is easily found without recomputing the applicable or operative Markov model. This is due to the fact that all of the reliability analysis data are presented over the entire mission duration consisting for all phases, and the initial and final probabilities can easily be found by examining the output reliability data instead of recomputing the model