Reliability Analysis of Monopile for a Offshore Wind Turbine Using Response Surface Method

Abstract

Reliability analysis with response surface method (RSM) was peformed for a offshore wind turbine (OWT) monopile, which is one of mostly used foundations under 25m seawater depth in the world. The behaviors of a real OWT monopile installed into sandy soils subjected to offshore environmental loads such as wind and wave were analysed using reliability design program (HSRBD) developed in KIOST. Sensitivity analysis of design variables for a OWT monopile with 6m diameter showed that the larger in pile diameter the smaller in probability of failure (Pf) of a horizontal deflection and a rotational angle at a pile top, but at a greater than 7m of pile diameter, the reduction rate of Pf was almost constant. It is a necessary that appropriate local design criteria should be designated as soon as possible because there were significant differences on horizontal deflections; Pf was 60% at a minimum criteria 15mm deflection, however, 1.5% Pf when 60mm deflection using 1% of pile diameter from local design criterion standard. Finally, friction angle of sand among many design variables was found most influential design factor in OWT monopile design, and a sensitivity analysis is found an important process to understand which design variables can mostly reduce Pf with a optimum design for maintaining OWT stability.