Abstract
In order to solve the problem of zero-failure data and dynamic failure in gasification system, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) combined with Monte Carlo simulations is proposed to analyze the reliability of the gasifier lock bucket valve system. On the basis of studying the structure of the gasifier lock bucket valve system, the reliability model of the system is built based on DBN, and the structure learning is realized. The Monte Carlo simulation is used for the timed ending test in Bayesian estimation, which effectively solves the problem of zero-failure data and realizes the parameter learning. Through the Metropolis-Hastings (M-Hs) algorithm, the prior distribution of dynamic node is randomly sampled to obtain the target distribution, which makes the reliability predictive inference for DBN of the gasifier lock bucket valve system faster and more accurate. The obtained reliability prediction is a curve varying with time. The results show that the valve frequent switch node of DBN of the gasifier lock bucket valve system is identified as the weak link by the powerful reverse inference for DBN, which needs to be paid more attention to. This method can effectively improve the maintenance level of the gasifier lock bucket valve system and can effectively reduce the possibility of accidents.
Highlights
Research ArticleReceived 22 September 2020; Revised 9 March 2021; Accepted 17 March 2021; Published 30 March 2021
Introduction of dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)DBN is an extension of static Bayesian network on the time dimension; in other words, the constraint of time attribute is added into the original network structure to reflect the dynamic change trend of variables [13, 14]
Gasifier lock bucket valve system is the core of the coal gasification unit, and its reliability study has guiding significance to ensure the safe and stable operation of the unit. e process of gasification system is complex and the correlation between devices is strong. erefore, the research on the reliability of gasifier lock bucket valve system can provide an important theoretical basis for the reliability analysis of large coal gasification unit, and it is of great significance to quickly and effectively determine the weak links of gasification system
Summary
Received 22 September 2020; Revised 9 March 2021; Accepted 17 March 2021; Published 30 March 2021. E success of coal gasification technology selection is directly related to the long-term stable operation of coal chemical production unit [1]. Both coal water slurry gasification and pulverized coal gasification have been commercialized. E technology has been combined with sulphur conversion, carbon dioxide capture, and integrated gasification combined cycle, which provides a total solution of environmental pollution in the use of coals and realizes the effective separation of fine ash from high ash coal in current industrial installations. Erefore, the research on the reliability of gasifier lock bucket valve system can provide an important theoretical basis for the reliability analysis of large coal gasification unit, and it is of great significance to quickly and effectively determine the weak links of gasification system Gasifier lock bucket valve system is the core of the coal gasification unit, and its reliability study has guiding significance to ensure the safe and stable operation of the unit. e process of gasification system is complex and the correlation between devices is strong. erefore, the research on the reliability of gasifier lock bucket valve system can provide an important theoretical basis for the reliability analysis of large coal gasification unit, and it is of great significance to quickly and effectively determine the weak links of gasification system
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
