Abstract
Flooding is a worldwide phenomenon. Over the last few decades the world has experienced a rising number of devastating flood events and the trend in such natural disasters is increasing. Furthermore, escalations in both the probability and magnitude of flood hazards are expected as a result of climate change. Flood defence embankments are one of the major flood defence measures and reliability assessment for these structures is therefore a very important process. Routine hydro-mechanical models for the stability of flood embankments are based on the assumptions of steady-state through-flow and zero pore-pressures above the phreatic surface, i.e. negative capillary pressure (suction) is ignored. Despite common belief, these assumptions may not always lead to conservative design. In addition, hydraulic loading is stochastic in nature and flood embankment stability should therefore be assessed in probabilistic terms. This cannot be accommodated by steady-state flow models. The paper presents an approach for reliability analysis of flood embankment taking into account the transient water through-flow. The factor of safety of the embankment is assessed in probabilistic terms based on a stochastic distribution for the hydraulic loading. Two different probabilistic approaches are tested to compare and validate the results.
Highlights
Current methods for assessing the stability of flood embankments are mostly deterministic
This paper focuses on the uncertainty of the hydraulic loading in the stability analysis of flood embankments
The hydraulic loading is represented by a hydrograph, i.e. the change of river level over time
Summary
Current methods for assessing the stability of flood embankments are mostly deterministic. This means they handle hydro-mechanical loading as if it was precisely known; this is not the case when dealing with natural hazards such as floods, which are stochastic phenomena. The natural variability of soil properties or the scarce amounts of field and laboratory experimental data add uncertainty to the characterisation of mechanical and hydraulic properties of materials. Probabilistic approaches enable randomness and uncertainty in the loading and soil hydro-mechanical properties to be taken into account by defining them as random variables described by a probability distribution. This paper focuses on the uncertainty of the hydraulic loading in the stability analysis of flood embankments. An embankment in the North of Italy on the Adige River has been chosen as a reference
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