Reliability analysis of an umbilical under ultimate tensile load based on response surface approach

Abstract

The umbilical is one of the most important components of a subsea production system. Processing errors and environmental load deviations may occur during the manufacturing process, and the deterministic design based on safety factors is often unable to meet the needs of engineering. In the present paper, the random distribution law of the umbilical geometry parameters is considered to analyse the reliability of the umbilical under the ultimate tensile load by combining the response surface approach of reliability analysis with the finite element analysis.