Reliability analysis of a grid-connected hybrid renewable energy system using hybrid Monte-Carlo and Newton Raphson methods

Abstract

The integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid is essential for sustainable development, yet it presents significant dependability challenges, particularly in terms of reliability, stability, and robustness due to the inherent variability of these sources. This research introduces a novel hybrid methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation with Newton-Raphson power flow analysis to enhance the reliability assessment of grid-connected hybrid renewable energy systems. This innovative approach uniquely addresses the limitations of existing methodologies by merging the probabilistic handling of uncertainties with precise deterministic power flow analysis. Our hybrid method significantly reduces the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) to 5 h per year and the Loss of Load Energy Expectation (LOEE) to 200 MWh per year, outperforming traditional methods which typically report LOLEs of 2020 h/year and LOEEs of 10001000 MWh/year. Additionally, the hybrid method achieves a reduction in power losses to 1.2%, showcasing its superior efficiency compared to the 2.5% losses seen with standalone Monte Carlo methods. Real-time validation using the IEEE-30 bus model further confirms the practical applicability and robustness of our approach, making it a pivotal tool for enhancing grid stability and optimizing renewable energy integration. This research not only advances the methodology for reliability assessment but also sets a new standard for balancing accuracy and computational efficiency in energy system management. The implications of this work are far-reaching, offering significant contributions to both grid reliability and the sustainable management of renewable energy resources.