Abstract
The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are dynamic habitats in which human activities have been conducted for centuries and which feature micro-tidal environments with about 0.40 m of range. For this reason, human settlements are still concentrated along a narrow coastline strip, where any change in the sea level and coastal dynamics may impact anthropic activities. In the frame of the RITMARE and the Copernicus Projects, we analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and Copernicus Earth Observation data to provide estimates of potential marine submersion for 2100 for 16 small-sized coastal plains located in the Italian peninsula and four Mediterranean countries (France, Spain, Tunisia, Cyprus) all characterized by different geological, tectonic and morphological features. The objective of this multidisciplinary study is to provide the first maps of sea-level rise scenarios for 2100 for the IPCC RCP 8.5 and Rahmstorf (2007) projections for the above affected coastal zones, which are the locations of touristic resorts, railways, airports and heritage sites. On the basis of our model (eustatic projection for 2100, glaciohydrostasy values and tectonic vertical movement), we provide 16 high-definition submersion maps. We estimated a potential loss of land for the above areas of between about 148 km2 (IPCC-RCP8.5 scenario) and 192 km2 (Rahmstorf scenario), along a coastline length of about 400 km.
Highlights
Sea-level rise is one of the major consequences of climate change which affects global communities living along coasts
The first is time dependent while the latter two vary with location, consists to sum the different components of sea level rise in the following main steps: (a) the IPCC-AR5 projections (RCP-8.5 upper limits scenarios) or Rahmstorf 2007; (b) the long term land vertical movements from geological data; (c) the glacio-hydro-isostatic movement (GIA); (d) by combining eustatic, isostatic and tectonic data projected up to 2100, we provided the expected sea-levels at 2100 for the investigated coastal areas and the expected inland extent of related marine flooding
The 16 maps described (Figures 1–9 and Figure S1, Table 3) show the expected submerged area for 2100 for the selected areas of Italy, Spain, France, Tunisia and Cyprus
Summary
Sea-level rise is one of the major consequences of climate change which affects global communities living along coasts. Toimil et al [8] delineated the requirements for a scientific approach for future projections of shoreline change, which should take into account changes in the mean sea level, storm surges, coastal erosion and other additional factors, with the aim of reducing uncertainty in shoreline change estimates. This rise is exposing many coastal areas around the world to coastal hazards and marine flooding
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