Abstract
BackgroundWe attempted to identify the pathways by which demographic changes, socioeconomic inequalities, and availability of health factors influence life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries.MethodsData for 91 countries were obtained from United Nations agencies. The response variable was life expectancy, and the determinant factors were demographic events (total fertility rate and adolescent fertility rate), socioeconomic status (mean years of schooling and gross national income per capita), and health factors (physician density and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] prevalence rate). Path analysis was used to determine the direct, indirect, and total effects of these factors on life expectancy.ResultsAll determinant factors were significantly correlated with life expectancy. Mean years of schooling, total fertility rate, and HIV prevalence rate had significant direct and indirect effects on life expectancy. The total effect of higher physician density was to increase life expectancy.ConclusionsWe identified several direct and indirect pathways that predict life expectancy. The findings suggest that policies should concentrate on improving reproductive decisions, increasing education, and reducing HIV transmission. In addition, special attention should be paid to the emerging need to increase life expectancy by increasing physician density.
Highlights
Life expectancy at birth, a widely used indicator of the overall development of a country, has increased during the last decade in most countries
Univariate analysis The background statistics for the predictor and response variables for low- and lower-middle-income countries are shown in Table 1, including the maximum and minimum values for all study variables, as well as means, medians, standard error of the mean (SE mean), and SDs
Life expectancy at birth was very low among the lowincome countries and almost all African countries
Summary
A widely used indicator of the overall development of a country, has increased during the last decade in most countries. We attempted to identify the pathways by which demographic changes, socioeconomic inequalities, and availability of health factors influence life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries. The response variable was life expectancy, and the determinant factors were demographic events (total fertility rate and adolescent fertility rate), socioeconomic status (mean years of schooling and gross national income per capita), and health factors (physician density and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] prevalence rate). Path analysis was used to determine the direct, indirect, and total effects of these factors on life expectancy. Total fertility rate, and HIV prevalence rate had significant direct and indirect effects on life expectancy. The total effect of higher physician density was to increase life expectancy. Special attention should be paid to the emerging need to increase life expectancy by increasing physician density
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