Abstract
Abstract. The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3–5 and 2–5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7–8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2–6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.
Highlights
Humans can exert influence on precipitation through modifications in land use (Mahmood et al, 2014; Kalnay and Cai, 2003) next to other anthropogenic forcings such as climate change (Zhang et al, 2007)
The section after that focusses on the atmospheric conditions and processes leading to the formation of precipitation
This paper aims to quantify the precipitation response to historic (1900) and future (2040) land use change in the Netherlands, and to put this response in the perspective of climate change
Summary
Humans can exert influence on precipitation through modifications in land use (Mahmood et al, 2014; Kalnay and Cai, 2003) next to other anthropogenic forcings such as climate change (Zhang et al, 2007). Land conversion takes place at a rapid pace, and this will likely continue in the future (Mahmood et al, 2010; Angel et al, 2011). This type of human influence on the climate system will continue, and will probably become more significant in the coming decades (Pielke et al, 2007; Mahmood et al, 2010). There is some evidence that urbanization plays a role (Daniels et al, 2015b)
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