Abstract
The paper analyses two datasets of elite soccer players (top 1000 professionals and UEFA Under-19 Youth League). In both, we find a Relative Age Effect (RAE) for frequency, but not for value. That is, while there are more players born at the start of the competition year, their transfer values are no higher, nor are they given more game time. We use Poisson regression to derive a transparent index of the discrimination present in RAE. Also, because Poisson is valid for small frequency counts, it supports analysis at the disaggregated levels of country and club. From this, we conclude there are no paragon clubs or countries immune to RAE; that is clubs and countries do not differ systematically in the RAE they experience; also, that Poisson regression is a powerful and flexible method of analysing RAE data.
Highlights
Children born early in their school year enjoy a considerable advantage over those born later in the school year, by being up to 12 months older than later-borns in the same class
This hothousing ensures that the academy boys are soon so far ahead of their peers that turnover of personnel is minimal in subsequent years. Because football is such a public, social, scrutinised and discussed event, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which talent could remain hidden for long. It follows that the Relative Age Effect (RAE) profile present at academy entry is likely to persist until the watershed moment which occurs in the late teens, culminating in professional contracts being offered to the select few
N is the number of “domestic” players appearing in the squad; "tB is the mean time of birth (0 at beginning of year, 1 at end, 0.5 mid-year); Poisson estimating equation is y = exp(b0 + b1.tB); R2 is McFadden’s pseudo-R2; ID is the Index of Discrimination = exp(-b1); First p is the statistical significance for rejecting the null hypothesis "tB !
Summary
Children born early in their school year enjoy a considerable advantage over those born later in the school year, by being up to 12 months older than later-borns in the same class. Consistent with prior research examining RAE among professional footballers, when assessed by frequency, birth-time distributions are notably asymmetric, favouring more early-born than later-born players [14].
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