Abstract
China’s announcement of its goal of carbon neutrality has increased the practical significance of research on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that result from urbanization. With a comprehensive consideration of population migration in China, this study examines the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions based on provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012. Two indicators (resident population and household registration population) are used to measure urbanization rate. The results reveal that the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in China is closely correlated with the structure of urban resident population and interregional population migration. The estimation results are still robust by using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator. The proportion of temporary residents is introduced as a proxy variable for population migration. The panel threshold model regression results show that the proportion of temporary residents has a marginal effect on the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions. In regions with a higher proportion of temporary residents, the positive effects of resident population urbanization on CO2 emissions tend to be weaker. These findings are consistent with the theories of ecological modernization and urban environmental transition. This paper makes suggestions on China’s urbanization development model and countermeasures are proposed to minimize the CO2 emissions caused by urbanization.
Highlights
With the rapid progress of urbanization, China has experienced a rocketing growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
The results show that the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions is closely correlated to urban population structure
Using panel data from thirty provinces in China from 2000 to 2012, and applying the STIRPAT model, this study empirically investigates the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions
Summary
With the rapid progress of urbanization, China has experienced a rocketing growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. China’s urbanization rate increased from 17.9% to 60.6% between 1978 and 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 1%. China has become the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. China’s CO2 emissions accounted for 28.5% of the world’s total carbon emissions in 2014, whereas its proportion of world emissions was only 13.7% in 2000 [1]. Carbon emission reduction affects China’s sustainable economic and environmental development.
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