Abstract

Abstract An analysis published a recent edition of this journal (Puur, Olah, Tazi-Preve, and Dorbritz 2008) reported that, eight European countries, with gender attitudes both desired and had more than with more traditional gender attitudes. These unexpected findings led us to explore a similar research question with an alternate dataset-the European/World Value Surveys. But we found-without exception-a negative association between men's attitudes and fertility, not only the selected European countries but also a considerable number of other developed countries. We explore possible reasons for and implications of these divergent findings. 1. Introduction This paper was prompted by an analysis published a recent edition of this journal (Puur, Olah, Tazi-Preve, and Dorbritz 2008) that showcased a provocative and potentially important finding. The authors explored cultural attitudes toward men's social roles and their connections with men's desired fertility eight European countries. According to their measures, those with more gender attitudes both desire[d] a higher number of children and realize[d] these plans by their late 30s and early and mid-40s, fathering more than traditional men (Puur et al. 2008, page 1901). The authors conclude that egalitarian seem to be pro-family indeed (page 1901), which, in the long run, [...] may indicate some positive prospects for Europe's fertility development (page 1902). Despite several exceptions (Kaufman 2000; Philipov 2008; Tazi-Preve, Bichlbauer, and Gougon 2004), the previous literature overwhelmingly has associated more gender role attitudes with lower rather than higher fertility. In contrast, if the findings of Puur et al. are reliable and generalizeable to other European countries, one might conclude that low fertility of the more developed countries may be reversing as gender attitudes increase and people's views of men's roles change. In light of the potential significance of these unexpected findings for the future level of fertility, we sought to explore the authors' measures more closely and to seek confirmation of their reported association with fertility from other data sources. 2. Summary of Puur et al.'s data and measures Data from the published article come from the 2002-2005 DIALOG project (Hohn, Avramov, and Kotowska 2008). Puur et al. limited their analyses to aged 20-44 Austria, Estonia, East and West Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, and Poland, based on surveys conducted between 2001 and 2003. As a proxy for more general gender attitudes, the authors focused on perceptions of men's social roles, as assessed by the following three statements: 1) It is not good if the man stays at home and cares for the and the woman goes out to work. 2) Family life often suffers because concentrate too much on their work. 3) For a man the job should be more important than the family. The authors constructed a summary index based on the extent of respondents' agreement with these statements (the middle item was reversed to be consistent with the direction of the scale). The authors assessed men's gender attitudes with this scale, with a high summary score indicating a more position and a low score a traditional orientation. For the eight European countries studied, the authors found a positive association between the gender index and both the total number of that aged 20-44 expected and the actual number of ever born for 35-44. In other words, with more attitudes (according to the index they constructed) both desired and had more than with more traditional gender views. In light of the somewhat unexpected direction of the relationship reported, an important question arises. …

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