Abstract

A statistical comparison of launch crashes at different worldwide space ports with geophysical factors has been performed. A comprehensive database has been compiled, which includes 50 years of information from the beginning of the space age in 1957 about launch crashes occurring world-wide. Special attention has been paid to statistics concerning launches at the largest space ports: Plesetsk, Baikonur, Cape Canaveral, and Vandenberg. In search of a possible influence of geophysical factors on launch failures, such parameters as the vehicle type, local time, season, sunspot number, high-energy electron fluxes, and solar proton events have been examined. Also, we have analyzed correlations with the geomagnetic indices as indirect indicators of the space weather condition. Regularities found in this study suggest that further detailed studies of space weather effects on launcher systems, especially in the high-latitude regions, should be performed.

Highlights

  • Since the beginning of the space era in 1957 more than 5000 space vehicles have been launched from different space ports in the world

  • We examine statistically all world-wide launch crashes occurring at all major space sites from 1957 to 2008

  • We found that for Proton and Kosmos launchers the deviations in the failure rate are statistically insignificant from others

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Summary

Introduction

Since the beginning of the space era in 1957 more than 5000 space vehicles have been launched from different space ports in the world. Crashes during the prime stage phase of launch (up to an altitude of ∼100 km) are mainly caused by combustion instability, ignition failure, turbopump overheating, insufficient control gain, staging electrical disconnect, and so forth Any such failure results in enormous financial losses for the space industry and insurance companies [1]. Cases of space vehicle failures during magnetic storms have been noticed by Romanova et al [12], who analyzed the statistics of launchers at the Plesetsk site for the period 1966– 2005. They found that the relative number of launch crashes was nearly 2 times higher at summertime than during other seasons and statistically increased during elevated geomagnetic activity.

Spacecraft Launch Databases
General Properties of Crash Probability and Analysis Methods
Seasonal and Daily Variations of the Launch Crash Probability
Midlatitude Sites
High-Latitude Space Port
The Relationship of Launch Failures with High-Energy Particle Fluxes
Findings
Discussion and Conclusions
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