Relationship between Visibility, Air Pollution Index and Annual Mortality Rate in Association with the Occurrence of Rainfall—A Probabilistic Approach

Grzegorz Majewski,Tomasz Wdowiak,Wioletta Rogula-Kozłowska,Ewa Anioł,Grzegorz Łagód,Anita Białek,Andrzej Brandyk,Barbara Wodecka,Michał Stachura,Bartosz Szeląg

doi:10.3390/en14248397

Abstract

An innovative method was proposed to facilitate the analyses of meteorological conditions and selected air pollution indices’ influence on visibility, air quality index and mortality. The constructed calculation algorithm is dedicated to simulating the visibility in a single episode, first of all. It was derived after applying logistic regression methodology. It should be stressed that eight visibility thresholds (Vis) were adopted in order to build proper classification models with a number of relevant advantages. At first, there exists the possibility to analyze the impact of independent variables on visibility with the consideration of its’ real variability. Secondly, through the application of the Monte Carlo method and the assumed classification algorithms, it was made possible to model the number of days during a precipitation and no-precipitation periods in a yearly cycle, on which the visibility ranged practically: Vis < 8; Vis = 8–12 km, Vis = 12–16 km, Vis = 16–20 km, Vis = 20–24 km, Vis = 24–28 km, Vis = 28–32 km, Vis > 32 km. The derived algorithm proved a particular role of precipitation and no-precipitation periods in shaping the air visibility phenomena. Higher visibility values and a lower number of days with increased visibility were found for the precipitation period contrary to no-precipitation one. The air quality index was lower for precipitation days, and moreover, strong, non-linear relationships were found between mortality and visibility, considering precipitation and seasonality effects.

Highlights

Ambient air pollution is one of the greatest environmental threats to human health and has been reported to be responsible for 4.2 million deaths worldwide in 2016 [1]
It was shown that in the wet period, the visibility of air increased in comparison to the dry period
Air visibility is one of the factors enabling us to assess, relate and interact between weather conditions and air quality, which is important in terms of its impact on human health

Summary

Introduction

Ambient air pollution is one of the greatest environmental threats to human health and has been reported to be responsible for 4.2 million deaths worldwide in 2016 [1]. That is the reason for which air pollution, along with all interrelations with meteorological conditions, climate changes and human health, first of all, needs to become a vital component of a global policy of pandemic mitigation. As it was already mentioned, there exist, undoubtedly, links between atmospheric environment characteristics and COVID-19 spreading [9]

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Results

Conclusion