Relationship between urban form and COVID-19 severity: impact of compactness during the lockdown and post-lockdown periods

Abstract

ABSTRACT This research paper examines the relationships between urban form and COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. metropolitan counties. Using multivariate regression analysis, the study investigates the impact of demographic characteristics, social distancing measures, healthcare capacity, and urban form indicators (density, land use mix, street accessibility, street centering), on COVID-19 infection and death rates. The analysis has been implemented during the lockdown (March 1 to June 30) and post-lockdown (Sept 1 to Dec 31) in 2020. The results reveal significant associations between several variables and COVID-19 rates. The compactness index showed mixed results, with a positive relationship observed during the lockdown phase and a negative relationship during the post-lockdown period. Demographic factors including a higher percentage of the black population, older age, and lower educational attainment are positively correlated with case and death rates. These findings suggest that the influence of urban form on COVID-19 outcomes varies across different stages of the pandemic. The research highlights the importance of considering both demographic and urban form factors when analyzing the impact of COVID-19, contributing to the growing body of literature on the complex interplay between urban environment and public health.