Relationship between the frequency of tropical cyclones in Taiwan and the Pacific/North American pattern

Abstract

The frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) in Taiwan during June to October (JJASO) is found to have a strong negative correlation with the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern in the preceding April. In the negative PNA phase, the anomalous cyclonic and the anomalous anticyclonic circulations are intensified at low latitudes and midlatitudes from East Asia to the North Atlantic, respectively, from April to JJASO. Particularly in East Asia, the anomalous southeasterly that converges between the anomalous anticyclone to the east of Japan and the anomalous cyclone to the east of Taiwan plays a decisive role in moving TCs not only to Taiwan, but also to the midlatitude coastal regions of East Asia as a result of the steering flow. In addition, a southwestward extension of a western North Pacific (WNP) high during the positive PNA phase also contributed to a frequent movement of TCs to southern China without traveling north toward the midlatitude regions of East Asia. Due to the difference in the typical tracks of the TC in the WNP according to the PNA phase, the intensity of the TC in the negative PNA phase is stronger than that in the positive PNA phase.