Abstract
We study how exposure to extreme temperatures in early periods of child development is related to adult economic outcomes measured 30 y later. Our analysis uses administrative earnings records for over 12 million individuals born in the United States between 1969 and 1977, linked to fine-scale, daily weather data and location and date of birth. We calculate the length of time each individual is exposed to different temperatures in utero and in early childhood, and we estimate flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities in the relationship between temperature and long-run outcomes. We find that an extra day with mean temperatures above 32 °C in utero and in the first year after birth is associated with a 0.1% reduction in adult annual earnings at age 30. Temperature sensitivity is evident in multiple periods of early development, ranging from the first trimester of gestation to age 6-12 mo. We observe that household air-conditioning adoption, which increased dramatically over the time period studied, mitigates nearly all of the estimated temperature sensitivity.
Highlights
We study how exposure to extreme temperatures in early periods of child development is related to adult economic outcomes measured 30 y later
This study attempts to fill this gap by providing evidence on the long-term consequences of early-life exposure to extreme temperatures, using data on over 12 million individuals born in the United States between 1969 and 1977 and observed 30 y later
Adaptation to extreme temperatures could occur through physiological acclimatization [21], short-run temporal substitution between activities, or the adoption of more permanent measures of temperature control such as air conditioning (AC), which we study here
Summary
We study how exposure to extreme temperatures in early periods of child development is related to adult economic outcomes measured 30 y later. This study attempts to fill this gap by providing evidence on the long-term consequences of early-life exposure to extreme temperatures, using data on over 12 million individuals born in the United States between 1969 and 1977 and observed 30 y later. Estimates of the long-term consequences of exposure to extreme heat on individuals’ wellbeing may serve as important inputs into calculations of the social cost of carbon [11] These estimates may help explain whether the persistent correlation between income and temperature around the world in part operates through a causal link between early-life exposure and adult productivity Adaptation to extreme temperatures could occur through physiological acclimatization (i.e., changes in skin blood flow, metabolic rate, oxygen consumption, and core temperatures) [21], short-run temporal substitution between activities (i.e., limiting time spent outside), or the adoption of more permanent measures of temperature control such as air conditioning (AC), which we study here
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